August 24, 2008

Coffee Information Central - TickerMine

We’ve become a bit of a coffee company lately. We’ve posted a few reports on Starbucks, Caribou Coffee and Peet’s.  We’re getting pretty well versed in the blends and beans.

Our latest report on Peet’s suggests the regular roasts are not knocking their socks off on the West Coast (Peet’s is a Berzerkly based company).


The House Blend Sells Poorly at Peet’s Coffee

Tickermine revisited Peet’s Coffee stores this week. 23 stores were approached and respondents were asked which coffee drinks are selling best? Which coffee drinks does the respondent order themselves? And which percentage of sales were plain coffee alone vs. specialty drinks? We found that Lattes remain the best selling drinks, according to 39% of those interviewed. The Arabian Mocha Java drink was cited by 17% and the same amount mentioned Freddos. Only 9% cited House blend coffee as their best seller. 52% of those polled said that 10 to 20% of their customers order plain coffee. 22 per cent said that less than 10% of their customers order plain coffee drinks, while 26% said greater than 20% of their customers do this. And 49% reported that they themselves order plain drip coffee. 39% say they order a specialty drink and 13%, surprisingly, reported they won’t touch the stuff with a pole.

Converseley we found pretty good things seemed to be happening at Caribou, although the company contacted us and did not seem to like our report. Despite their complaints we note that CBOU is up 100% off a pretty good 2Q (versus expectations) and we’re probably the only ones picking up good trends at CBOU since they have no analyst coverage.


23% of Caribou Coffee Locations See at Least 65% of Customers More Than 4X Per Week

According to TickerMine’s recent poll, lattes are the best selling coffee drink for Caribou Coffee. Thirty-five percent of locations polled named the milky drink their top order. Coffee of the day (16%), mochas (13%) and cappuccino (10%) are also popular. Thirty-two percent of Caribou Coffees say they sell regular drip coffee, rather than specialty drinks, 10 to 15% of the time. Twenty-six percent said they sell drip coffee 15 to 20% percent of the time. Another 26% said they sell drip coffee five to ten percent of the time; 16% said drip coffee makes up more than 20% of their orders. Fifty-five percent of employees participating in the poll drink mostly specialty drinks; 26% order drip coffee. A full 19% of employees interviewed do not drink coffee at all. Caribou Coffee has a large number of regular customers: 23% of locations polled said 65 to 80% of their customers come in more than four times per week. Another 35% of locations said 26 to 50% of their customers come in more than four times a week. Only 35% of Caribou Coffees have raised their prices in the last two months.

We covered Starbucks in a previous post and the gist is, lower drip coffee sales, more specialty drink sales and some store closings all add up to some improvement in SBUX, at least that’s what the unbiased field data is telling us.