April 29, 2008

Buffalo Wild Wings Bucks the Trend; Cheesecake Factory Confirms It.

We are in the process of trying to prove out our concepts on Tickermine. We believe that point of sale trend data is a very important indicator of current and future business trends. This may seem obvious, but we’re getting resistance to this concept from the people who manage your investments. Shocking? Yes. Surprising? No.

You can review TickerMine articles for the past month and you will see we reported on two companies in the same sector experiencing two different trends. Buffalo Wild Wings (BWLD) had very positive survey results and beat analysts estimates when they reported earnings on April 29th. The Cheesecake Factory (CAKE) showed weakening survey results in our surveys and the company reported dissapointing results when they reported on April 24th.

The broader trend in casual dining is down. This has been widely reported. What is powerful about the data on TickerMine in our view is that we have seen our survey data be positive and negative in this environment and our survey’s seem to help identify which is which on a specific company by company basis. We believe this predictive insight is powerful for investors.

We don’t want to be seen as “cherry-pickers” here so we’ll point out some other interesting work appearing now on TickerMine. We have posted a suvey on Bed Bath and Beyond (BBBY) today that is very negative with almost half the respondents seeing business as “worse” than last year. Our survey’s tend to have a positive bias to them, so this high concentration of negative answers suggests that the impact of the economy at BBBY could be severe.