Sometimes good data doesn’t lead to a valuable outcome. We saw an example of that this past week at TickerMine. We posted a story on LuLu Lemon Athletica Inc. (LULU) that showed very strong average sales, lots of repeat customers and modest discounting. We thought the story pointed to a positive quarterly report for the company. In fact LULU did post 10% more revneues than analysts expected. However, as LULU expands the company sees lower EPS for the remainder of the year. The net result? Stock down.
LULU is probably a long term winner in the athletic clothing space. Near term the right data did not lead to the right outcome.
3 weeks ago
There is an interesting blurb on a marketwatch blog here. The blog highlights three retail ETF’s and the earnings results of some of its components. The key point was Sears got killed while some other names are doing good. The net result is a middling performance for the ETF versus the strong names in the sector. The ETF’s were up today about 1%-1.5%. Good names, like LULU on our post below, and others like JAS were up 3%+ today.
ETF’s are attractive because investors have given up and say “I can’t” pick individual companies, maybe I can pick sectors.” The problem with picking sectors is that in normal markets where the whole market is not simply straight up or down you need to identify specific names. TickerMine’s data helps investors do that.
We see the ETF craze tapping our fairly soon as this fact begins to dawn on folks that those who use real data (e.g. TickerMine) get good performance and those who use sector ETF’s simply own all the good and bad stocks in a sector.
1 month ago
Our second survey on LULU is proving to be positive just like the first. We find it interesting that the average price for purchases is over $100 and that most products are bought at full price, not on significant discounts like we saw happening with Dicks Sporting Goods (see TickerMine and search under DKS). LULU’s stock is showing a recognition of this trend and we hope that readers are getting the benefit of our unique data that provides true glimpses of the economy and not the broad brushed perceptions provided by media outlets and most large financial firms.
Lululemon Shoppers Spend an Average of $101 per shop and Most Pay Full Price for the Gear
Lululemon Athletica Inc., the maker of yoga athletic wear seems to be having a great year. The British Columbia-based company reported fourth-quarter net revenue increases by 101% in February to $105 million and its next earnings will be in June. Tickermine surveyed 25 retail stores across the nation and asked respondents about the spending habits of their customers, what percent of their customers are return customers, what are the best selling items in their stores, how strong is their inventory and do their customers often pay full price or sale price for the goods? The average amount spent at the Lululemon stores was $101, our survey has found, and 52% of the stores customers are returning customers. The most popular clothing items were pants; cited by 16% of those polled (these included the All Sport pant, the Down Dawg pant and Divine Crop pants). Another 16% of respondents said the women’s Anise Tank sold best. And another 16% said their Kissy Bikini Top was a bestseller. The Alluring Tank for women, the Activa Jacket, the Bella Top, the Bloom Gym bag and the Strength Tech LS shirt were each cited as the best-selling item by two people or by 8% of those polled. The following were each cited by one person as the best-selling item or by 4% of those interviewed: Hoodies, the women’s Marathon Bra and the Yoga Skirt. Seven respondents or 28% of those polled said they do struggle to keep their best-selling items in stock. One respondents cited that the tall line of clothing was particularly scarce. 18 respondents or 72% said their stock was buoyant. Interestingly, six respondents or 24% said that their customers were bargain shoppers and only bought items off of the sale rack. A healthy 19 respondents or 76% said their customers paid full price for the goods.
1 month ago
TickerMine keeps working to alert readers to trends in the real economy with our primary data service.
One of the more interesting segments right now in the retail space is the high end jean product category. We have just posted two stories to TickerMine with results showing that demand remains strong for high end jeans in general and specifically for Joe’s Jeans and True Religion jeans.
True Religion (TRLG) share price has been on positive tear for the past month. Event today with oil breaking throug $132 and the doomsayers out, TRLG is up almost a $1.
Interesting in this space, Joe’s Jeans is now seen the “hippest” brand displacing True Religion in our earlier surveys. JOEZ stock price has not moved much over the past three months and we believe that it is a combination of size, let’s be honest Joe’s is under $100 million in market cap, and skepticism about the ability of demand to hold up for high end jeans.
We put all the data on TickerMine so everyone can judge for themselves by becoming a Diamond Miner subscriber.
1 month ago
Hello everyone.
We are at the tail end of earnings and TickerMine continues to put out very interesting, but more importantly, predictive stories on a large range of retail and consumer companies.
Last week we posted a positive report on Liz Claiborne stores. We saw that 62% of our survey respondents were saying that business was better than the year before. Liz Claiborne reported earnings this morning that on an operating basis were much stronger than anticipated. The company did reduce guidance for the full year but we believe it is possible that those new estimates are now easy hurdles to cross if our surveys continue to the positive trend we have seen recently for Liz.
The more important issue is that of the move in Liz Claiborne shares. Many investors appear confused at the shares rise despite a reduction in forward guidance. That all has to do with “wall street” games and expectations. We believe that trends are improving at Liz and while the guidance was reduced investors likely to perceive that the business is stronger (or less weak) than they believed yesterday.
We highlight that following the trends at the street level and using point of sale survey data can help lead us down the right path and not feel baffled when company results are not what we expected.
Later this week look for good results from Kohl’s and maybe a weaker guidance report than expected from JC Penney. That is what our survey’s tell us at TickerMine.
1 month ago
TickerMine’s most recent survey of JC Penney stores finds that 66% of respondents report that “Women’s Clothing” is the top selling category of items in their stores. “Chidren’s Apparel” as a category was ranked by 9% as the top selling group of items. 40% of respondents reported that business was the same as last year at this time, while 14% cited slower sales due to bad weather. We alert readers to our view that reports of negative sales should be given great weight, as store employee surveys generally exhibit a positive bias. JC Penney employees identifed categories of merchandise with excess inventory in their stores. 17% of respondets each saw excess inventory of “Womens’ Apparel” category and “Jewelry and Watches” category. 11% saw Children’s Apparel in excess inventory while 9% saw bedding and furniture category as having excess inventory.
On March 12th, 2008 TickerMine published its 3rd survey on JC Penney stores. The survey data picked up an increase in respondents reporting excess inventory at the stores. TickerMine alerted readers to the fact that the level of negative responses was unusually high and to be on alert for weakness at JC Penney’s.
On April 1, the financial press began reporting stories like this:
J.C. Penney (NYSE:JCP) shocked the investing community last week when it lowered its first-quarter earnings guidance to 50 cents per share, down from 75-80 cents. This is really bad news, and it does not bode well for the retail stalwart.”
TickerMine data had served as a warning, providing an alert for investors to re-think JC Penney and what the expectations were for the company.
To access raw data points on companies like JC Penney and 100’s of others on a real time basis, become a subscriber
at www.tickermine.com
2 months ago
24% of Harley Davidson dealers in our March survey characterized sales as worse than last year, up slightly from our February survey (23%) and November survey (20%). 38% say business is the same, up from 31% in February, and 38% reported that business is better this year, down from 46% in February. The Sportster was cited as the best-selling model by 48% of those polled, jumping from 33% in both our February and November surveys. Other models mentioned in the March survey include the Road King (24%), Roadster (14%) and Soft Tail (10%). 86% of dealers polled were not sold out of any models. The remaining 14% were all sold out of the Super Glide.
This post on TickerMine was our fourth survey on Harley Davidson (HOG). This hit our site on April 2, 2008. Our four surveys on Harley showed consistently worse responses from Harley dealerships about the level of business for the motorcycle company.
Harley Davidson reported an in-line quarter in April but reduced guidance for the rest of the year well below any expectations.
To access raw data points on companies like Harley Davidson and 100’s of others on a real time basis, become a subscriber
at www.tickermine.com
2 months ago
In TickerMine’s survey of Lululemon stores we found that most shoppers spend over $50 per visit and that a majority of Lululemon store representatives believe that most customers are repeat customers to their store. TickerMine’s survey showed that 45% of customers spent $50-$75 per store visit and that 37% spent $75-$125 per store visit. There were no responses below $40 in our survey. When we asked Lululemon store employees what percentage of customers were returning customers 37% chose 50-60%, 29% said 60-75% and 15% of respondents believed that over 75% of store traffic was returning customers. In our survey it was revealed that 54% of respondents believed that tops in general were the top selling item (45% said tank tops) 23% saw pants as the best selling category led specifically by yoga pants. 68% of respondents reported that there were no issues with inventory shortages at their Lululemon location, while 28% did say there were some product shortages. Lululemon respondents also told us that 68% of customers paid full price for clothes most often. 23% of respondents believe that customers generally shop for and purchase the items on sale.
This article was posted on 3/31/2008 just a day or two before LuLuLemon Athletica reported better than expected results. What was great about this survey was captured in our headline “Repeat Business Strong” which came through in the company’s results as LULU management cited strong same store sales with the successful quarterly results.
To access raw data points on companies like LuLu Lemon and 100’s of others on a real time basis, become a subscriber
at www.tickermine.com
2 months ago
Cheescake Factory restaurants are reporting shorter wait times and smaller checks on average compared to last month. Tickermine interviewed employees of twenty-four Cheesecake Factory restaurants and found that the average wait time was less than 10 minutes for seventeen (71%) respondents. Twenty-one (87%) restaurants reported that the average check size for a party of two is between $20 and $50. Three (12%) restaurants reported the average check size over $50. Asked about their most popular dishes, employees reported a variety of entrees including Baja Chicken Tacos (8%), Chicken Madeira (12%) and Maple Bourbon Pork Tenderloin (8%). Twelve (50%) restaurants reported various chicken entrees as the most popular dishes and seven (30%) reported burgers and sandwiches as the most popular dish. Seventeen (71%) restaurants were surveyed between 10am and 3pm. Seven (29%) were surveyed between 3pm and 10pm.
This TickerMine report was published on April 9th, roughly two weeks before The Cheesecake Factory reported one of its worst quarters ever. This survey was the fourth consecutive published on TickerMine that showed increasingly short wait times and smaller average check sizes.
To access raw data points on companies like The Cheesecak Factory and 100’s of others on a real time basis, become a subscriber
at www.tickermine.com
2 months ago
In a recent survey of Buffalo Wild Wings restaurants, nearly 48% of the respondents stated that business is up over last year, while only 8% felt business is down. 28% saw no change. The average bill for two is just $21-$30 at 65% of the locations and $31-$40 at 20%. 56% mentioned the menu as the main reason to dine in a Buffalo Wild Wings, and the wings are by far the most popular dish, cited by 72% of respondents. The other main draw for customers is the ambience, with 32% of mentions. Most locations (60%) report that dinner is their busiest time and most locations (60%) are not close to a mall or other restaurant.
The above entry was posted to TickerMine on April 14th, two weeks before the company reported earnings. Those earnings were substantially ahead of expectations. TickerMine’s report was the third consecutive positive survey on Buffalo Wild Wings.
To access raw data points on companies like Buffalo Wild Wings and 100’s of others on a real time basis, become a subscriber
at www.tickermine.com
2 months ago
